Cement market in Southwest China in 2016: outstanding in peak season, not in off season
The southwest region faces the south central region in the east and the northwest region in the north. Including Sichuan Province, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province, Tibet Autonomous Region and Chongqing municipality directly under the Central Government. Southwest China has a complex terrain structure, mainly composed of plateaus, mountains and hills,
The southwest region faces the south central region in the east and the northwest region in the north. Including Sichuan Province, Guizhou Province, Yunnan Province, Tibet Autonomous Region and Chongqing municipality directly under the Central Government. Southwest China has a complex terrain structure, mainly composed of plateaus, mountains and hills, including Bashu Basin and surrounding mountains, Yunnan Guizhou Plateau and Qinghai Tibet Plateau, which makes the local mineral resources rich in varieties and reserves. There are many big rivers in the region, and some of the water areas have gentle water flow and convenient water transportation. The northern part of the region is mainly composed of rivers in the Yangtze River basin. In particular, some cement in Chongqing can flow straight down to Shanghai. The water transportation infrastructure is mature. The Pearl River in the southeast of the region connects the Pearl River Delta region via Yunnan and Guizhou, while transnational rivers such as the Red River in the south also provide water transportation conditions for transnational trade, Although the water transport conditions of some rivers are not perfect, it still brings more possibilities for the future extension of cement market in Southwest China. In terms of climate, the southwest region has a humid climate, many rainy seasons and cold plateau, which have different impacts on the production, transportation, storage and demand of cement. Due to the complex geological conditions in Southwest China, it has been a relatively closed area since ancient times, especially the development of land transportation lags behind other regions, and the development of cement market is inevitably restricted.
The geological conditions and climate characteristics of the southwest region make the basic conditions for the development of the cement industry in the region significantly different from other regions. In addition, the economic development speed of the southwest region is relatively slow compared with that of the middle east. Even the economic development of provinces and cities in the region is also significantly different, which creates the cement market situation in the region. This paper will summarize and analyze the cement market situation and development in Southwest China in 2016.
1、 Market supply and demand
1.1 The real estate investment has stabilized after fluctuation, and the construction area has hardly changed
In 2016, the completed amount of fixed investment in Southwest China rose slightly year on year, and the overall level was stable at around 15%. The growth rate of fixed investment in the region was stable. The completed amount of real estate investment in the whole year also maintained a positive year-on-year growth, but there were certain fluctuations in the year. The year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter rose rapidly, reaching 5.67% in April, becoming the larger year-on-year growth rate in the year. Later, the trend went down all the way. By August, the growth rate was only 2.75%, reaching the lowest point in the year, and finally stabilized at around 3%. The construction area in Southwest China in 2016 was basically the same as that in the previous year. At the beginning of the year, there was a certain positive year-on-year growth, and then the year-on-year growth slowed down. At the end of the year, the low value was slightly negative year-on-year growth. The newly constructed area grew positively year-on-year in the first quarter, reached a high value in March, and then continued to decline. In May, it began to grow negatively year-on-year, and the newly constructed area in the whole year was about 5% less than the level of the same period last year. In 2016, the completed area continued to grow positively year on year, and the year-on-year growth rate fluctuated greatly throughout the year, with higher and lower growth rates at the beginning and end of the year, respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of sales area is stable, and has been maintained at about 20%.
1.2 The production capacity utilization rate was flat, and the output increased steadily year on year
According to the data of China Cement Network, the cement clinker production capacity in Southwest China reached 350 million tons in 2016. Among them, Sichuan has the largest clinker production capacity, more than 110 million tons, accounting for 32.49% of the southwest region, while Tibet has the smallest clinker production capacity, only 3.41 million tons, accounting for less than 1% of the southwest region. The clinker production capacity of the top ten cement enterprises in the region accounts for 68.21% of that in Southwest China, with China's building materials accounting for the largest proportion, reaching 26.74%, followed by Conch (316.18 yuan/ton, 0%) cement, accounting for 11.2%. After the acquisition of Lafarge (327.25 yuan/ton, 0%) cement business in Southwest China, Huaxin (355 yuan/ton, 0%) cement has risen to the third largest clinker production capacity in the region, accounting for 8.53%.
In the first quarter of 2016, the output of cement and clinker in Southwest China turned from negative to positive year on year, with an obvious growth rate. Later, the growth rate slowed down but continued to rise. At the end of the year, both of them were close to the level of 10% year on year. Except that the output in Southwest China was low at the beginning of the year due to the cold wave, the year-on-year growth rate of output in the whole year did not fluctuate significantly from peak to peak.
From the perspective of clinker production capacity utilization rate, the southwest region is not high as a whole, only 72.75%. Among them, under the calculation method of output to capacity, the ratio in Tibet is higher than 100%, which indicates that Tibet has also imported some clinker from Golmud, Qinghai and other places on the basis of full utilization of clinker capacity. The clinker capacity utilization rate of Sichuan in southwest China is very low, only 66.28%, and the local overcapacity problem is the most serious. In addition, except for the special situation in Tibet, Chongqing has a high rate of clinker production capacity in the region, which is related to the rapid economic development of municipalities directly under the Central Government.
Key words: calcium aluminate powder