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The current situation of the concrete industry and the development trend of the 13th five-year plan

Number of visits: Date:2017-04-22 15:58

In recent years gradually thorough along with the national economic structure adjustment and the reform of supply side overweight, cement and other basic building materials industry had borne the brunt of the 2015 national cement demand decline trend, and the official enterprises above designated size of commodity concrete production are still about 2.14% year-on-year growth, other channels are a significant decline in overall ready-mixed concrete production. Since 2016, although the growth of investment in fixed assets is still continue downward, but the infrastructure construction and real estate investment growth is a significant response, the demand of concrete also improved significantly.
First, the economic performance of the concrete industry
Demand side: infrastructure and real estate investment accelerate, driving demand for concrete
Three quarters of 2016 years ago, the national investment in fixed assets 42.7 trillion yuan, up 8.2% from a year earlier, the growth rate fell 2.1% from a year earlier, compared with last year fell 1.7%. Which related to pull the concrete requirements of construction and installation engineering completed 30 trillion yuan, up 9.7% from a year earlier, the growth rate fell 2% from the same period a year earlier, the year fell 1.6% year on year.
Despite the fact that the overall fixed asset investment growth is falling, but from the perspective of the industry segment of enlarging concrete demand, two key infrastructure investment, real estate demand terminal investment growth compared with last year appeared rising trend. In the first three quarters of this year, investment in the public sector management industry, which accounts for about 47 percent of infrastructure construction, grew 23.6 percent year on year, up 3.6 percentage points from the same period last year. Accounts for nearly 30% of road transport infrastructure construction investment before the investment grew 15% year-on-year in the third quarter, growth is down 3% from a year earlier, down 1.7% compared with last year. In addition, the growth of investment in the railway transport sector, which accounts for the greater proportion, has been rising significantly, and investment in the management industry has declined slightly.
In the second half of 2015, the national real estate market heats up, but also a hot streak this year, on the double stimulation to the inventory and hot sales market of real estate investment, growth of 5.8% in the first three quarters of investment, up 3.2% from a year earlier. New starting area in the case of a sustained negative growth last year to present situation that rises quickly, in the first half of the total area of nearly 15% year-on-year growth, new development late fall, fell to 6.8% in the first three quarters.
Real estate investment boom and the faster increase in infrastructure investment is an important support, guarantee concrete demand growth in commercial concrete consumption growth at the same time, the concrete pole, concrete precast pile has been a significant increase in product production, such as, annual growth rate have improved significantly over the last year.
Supply side: increase in output growth and low price
In 2015, the China concrete and cement association officially counted 1.64 billion cubic meters of concrete production, a year-on-year increase of 2.14%. Other statistical channel as a whole have different ready-mixed concrete production, and has also appeared differences: concrete branch of China construction industry institute statistics for the production of 1.812 billion cubic meters, up 2.37% from a year earlier. Statistics from the China association for the development of cement and development in China were 18.3.4 billion cubic meters, down 7.7 percent year on year. The statistics on China's concrete network were 22.23 billion cubic meters, down 6.24 percent from a year earlier.
China association of concrete and cement products according to official data, 2016 years ago in the commodity concrete production is 1.272 billion cubic meters, up 7.6% from a year earlier, growth picked up the whole of last year.
From the point of the market, the first half of the price is still a certain gap compared with the same period last year and the year before, in the second half began to end a sharp rise in prices of the raw materials for the concrete, thus promote business with mixed prices, began to break through in August during the same period last year level.
Cement prices since the second half of the large area rose sharply, prices have also risen sharply, sand and gravel aggregate parts also introduced concrete guiding price or minimum price accordingly, from the various provinces and cities rise in price, because of environmental problems because of some provinces such as henan, shanxi mixing plant shutdown prices rose sharply, jinyu (372.5 yuan/ton, 0%), jidong (318 yuan/ton, 0%) sharply raised after the restructuring of beijing-tianjin-hebei region cement concrete retail price corresponding improved significantly, some regions such as guizhou, jiangxi, hebei, cement price surge has not to mix side.
9.21 freight New Deal, surge, it will directly influence on the concrete terminal customers, provide transportation services of concrete production enterprises after the increased transportation costs will inevitably fall costs to commodity prices.
In terms of industry earnings, the total concrete and cement industry revenue was 725.44 billion yuan in the january-august period, up 6% year on year. The total profit was 3.845 billion yuan, up 6.5 percent year on year. The overall receivables of the industry were up 7.5 per cent from the same period last year, and net receivables of 273.42 billion yuan at the end of August.
Second, the industry hot event comment and pain points, the difficult analysis
Since 2016, the concrete industry and related upstream and downstream industry there are many hot issues, significant influence on the concrete industry, the industry has some nagging pain points and difficult points of at the same time, there is a new challenge.
Hot event 1: the cement enterprises have combined large and multiple price increases, and the cost of the concrete industry has been greatly increased
Cement prices after the Spring Festival season in 2016 did not like the previous two years continue to weak, but the rebound rally, this round of rising lasted for two months, is rapidly rising demand, the early rounds of driving factors lead to wrong peak production stop kiln; With subsequent demand release rate slowed, cement prices fall, from may, however, the state council general office no. 34, across the organization to carry out the steady growth, structural adjustment, increases the efficiency of mobilization meeting, so the unified limit production prices become important and universal means of quickly across the country, prices rose sharply round and round, the concrete enterprise unprepared, cost pressures.
The big increase in the price of cement, on the one hand, is a rebound in the price trough, showing the higher bargaining position of cement companies. On the other hand, industries that are more concentrated can have faster, better responsiveness to respond to emergencies, or to respond to price increases consistently. The concentration of the concrete industry is low, and concrete companies are the less able to negotiate, and the big price increases of the cement companies are ultimately helpless. There is a local association that directs concrete companies to pursue legal action, but the cement business side believes that the concrete companies are not in the right direction. Concrete as the middle part of raw material for building has become a "weak groups", in the long run the concrete enterprise need to change their industry status, and how it is urgent to resolve as soon as possible the cost side of the pressure of rising prices.
Hot event 2: environmental protection check, some areas now have a "forced demolition"
Every year, media reports suffer concrete mixing plant shut down, on the one hand is shut down, no qualification enterprise, on the other hand is not up to standard of environmental protection enterprises to carry out rectification, punishment, this year the concrete mixing station in henan province "eviction", widespread closure is rare. The second half of July the central environmental protection supervision inspection group in henan, and ushered in the henan history's most severe environmental protection month, 90% of the commercial production mixing station in zhengzhou, zhongmou county, mixing station evictions most aggressive, the reason is no qualification management, environmental protection doesn't pass. To conduct comprehensive qualified concrete mixing station of zhengzhou city acceptance, acceptance of a return to work, substandard firmly not allowed to return to work, not qualified, the land license, production license, the enterprise business license and other documents listed in the first of the forced demolition project.
Event review: the environmental protection supervision in henan province of the big, to the wide range of influence is unprecedented, and environmental protection in big, exposes many without qualifications and certificates of mixing plant. Concrete industry low barriers to entry for qualification whether to cancel the industry still has a lot of different views, but still cannot guarantee the precondition of qualification as a business, under the present situation of qualifications should cancel and resetting parallel consideration of barriers to entry? Environmental factors in the development of Chinese society in the future will cause the attention of more and more high, enterprise management of the internalization of external costs will also be gradually, I wish the henan environmental scrutiny can have the effect of shock, across the country in other parts of the concrete enterprise needs to check list introspection as soon as possible!
Hot spot 3: will the assembly building account for 30%, will it have a shock to the business enterprise?
In February, 2016, promulgated by the state council on further strengthening the construction of urban planning management work of several opinions, clearly put forward development way of building of the new type: promoting prefabricated buildings, reduce construction waste and dust pollution, shorten the construction period, improve the quality of the project. Step up policy support to make up to 30 per cent of new buildings in a decade or so. Actively yet prudently promote the construction of steel structures; In places where conditions exist, we advocate the development of modern wooden structures.
Again in September by the general office of the state council issued "the guidance on developing prefabricated construction", put forward by beijing-tianjin-hebei, Yangtze river delta and pearl river delta urban agglomeration as the key areas, to actively promote the population of permanent residents in more than 3 million other cities area, the rest of the cities to encourage the region, adjust measures to local conditions development of prefabricated concrete structure, steel structure and modern wooden prefabricated buildings. The move is a boon for prefabricated concrete industries, which seem to have a big impact on the pre-mixed concrete industry.
Event review: prefabricated construction, construction department, housing industrialization, the similar concepts seem to be all the buildings in the field of reform and progress, and as a provider of precast concrete building materials with the ready-mixed concrete industry demand will need to follow the change of the terminal, not only may have to change their products, and is likely to change their business model and business scope. Across countries push prefabricated buildings, are also introduced relevant policies and standards for the development of prefabricated construction, at the same time in the construction of change come, ready-mixed concrete industry looked at this change also worried. If the architectural style of the building changes, will the future customers of the pre-mixed concrete enterprises change radically? Will the qualified concrete companies continue to consider the extension of the product chain? A series of problems could revolutionize the current landscape of concrete. Yet for the current emergence of prefabricated construction boom in the construction field to think there are some cold, from technology to market seems there are still some reasons for not suitable for promoting. But concrete companies need to see changes in the construction side, and then think about where they are going.
Hotspot event 4: the storm is forcing the "sponge city" to accelerate
In August 2015 and October, the general office of the state council has issued a "about promoting the construction of urban underground pipe gallery guidance", "about promoting urban construction guidance" sponge, top-level design support for underground pipe rack and sponge on construction of city. Urban waterlogging recurrent stimulus "sponge city" construction speeds up, in 2016, southern hubei, fujian, jiangsu, zhejiang, Shanghai and other places the country is greater than that in some parts of waterlogging, became a veritable "lot". Wuhan, the first batch of sponge cities, has put the issue of "sponge city" on the forefront again.
Event review: sponge comprehensive utility tunnel construction in urban function of the city and underground appear more problems when more and more be taken seriously, in March this year the ministry issued the interim provisions on special sponge city planning, requirements before the end of October, 2016, complete set city city special planning draft, sponge according to application and approval. The government subsidies on construction fund issue, however, a drop in the ocean, in order to boost social capital to enter, the state with the PPP mode to achieve to subsidize a certain percentage of the city, but with the same as the PPP are faced with the problem, the social capital to participate in the enthusiasm is not high. At the same time, there is a mixed line of practitioners, and detailed plans for a sponge city still need to be systematized.
Hot event 5: some local industry association is mixed "price" for business, whether have "illegal" suspicion?
In June, the Beijing municipal association of concrete in the general assembly adopted the industry "about the implementation of quality control of price decision, decision since July 1st, the new supply contract of ready-mixed concrete ready-mixed concrete shall not be lower than the price of the municipal councils and association website released on May 5, the quality control of price (for example, C30 quality control in the price of 320 yuan/cubic meter), cause the buzz in the industry, published in the media industry figures for different views of the quality control of price, some people put forward is suspected of violating the" anti-monopoly law "regulation, and questioned whether have pricing power, some people think that association released the execution of the quality control of price decision to open the door to the ready-mixed concrete industry self-salvation.
Event review: and we have pricing power, whether industry regulators alone paper announcement issued in terms of the minimum price things, not just the Beijing association of concrete cases, this year march according to different regional cement clinker cement association of liaoning province for the lowest price limit. In 2013, and 2014 is the news on the price of cement and concrete industry monopoly cases, such as price bureau of jiangsu province in 2013 according to the report in accordance with the law of nanjing association of concrete and some concrete production enterprises to carry out the price monopoly investigation, according to the anti-monopoly law on the implementation of price monopoly nanjing concrete association and 37 involved companies made a verdict of total fines of up to 39 million yuan; In 2014, three cement enterprises in northeast China were fined 110 million yuan. So does the quality control approach also involve a monopoly? Besides, the quality of the product determines the price of the product under the market principle, and the quality of the concrete should be guaranteed by "controlling price".
The emergence of a new hot spot for the concrete industry leads to some new thinking, and at the same time, there are still some in the industry has a long history of pain points and difficult points has not been solved effectively.
1, the quality problem of the concrete is more and more difficult to control the quality of product, on the one hand, raw materials is more and more complex, on the other hand is still of personnel quality is low, concrete equipment nor around the industry to design again, in the end, the downstream demand is more and more refined, more complicated. Concrete industry's own technology innovation to keep pace with the downstream demand change, quality management, quality supervision link is too weak at the same time, the lack of quality system building, concrete quality problem cannot be effectively solved.
2, lack of effective policies to guide the concrete industry are scattered and disorderly situation related to the lack of effective policy guidance generally, enterprise of policy research, mastery of industry development trend is not accurate and specific, so cannot obtain the effective support of relevant government departments. The enterprise thinks the concrete current chaos associated with the lack of effective layout planning, should be combined with the layout of the urban planning of concrete mixing station put forward detailed quantitative indicators, and put forward the concrete special planning.
3, environmental issues commercial concrete in twenty years ago the city has made a great contribution to environmental protection, but the industry, the enterprise's own environmental work is too little, dust pollution and the destruction of road damage the enterprise image, with the industry enterprise is not recognized by society. As tax contribution is not big, it is difficult to get government attaches great importance to, the government environmental protection screen, incurable super and limit, concrete enterprise key management is always the first encounter.
4, low bargaining position as raw materials and the concrete construction for a long time of the processing link between the formation of sales, order form and payment can make only a low bargaining power in the industrial chain, causing huge accounts receivable become lingering pain points.
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